Michael Pechony posted an update 1 year, 2 months ago
In my view, many are missing the point. Everyone is talking about this wave of CMBS maturities that is not going to refinance. Let me disabuse you of that notion. The issue is, losses have to be taken. Let me give you a map. In 2007, $400 billion was financed in this country. Assuming on average 80 percent LTV, that means $500 billion of value traded. Everyone across the globe would accept that on average, value devalued 40 to 50 percent. That means that real estate, which was worth $500 billion, was worth only $250 billion. At the same time, you cannot get an 80 percent loan, but only a 65 percent loan. So 65 percent of $250 billion is $175 billion. Think about it: In ’06 and ’07, we should not have put on more than $175 billion of debt, yet we put on $400 billion. Of course the losses have to be taken.